Midterm Mayhem: Should Investors Be Worried?

Darcie Guerin

This article provided by Darcie Guerin, CFP®, Senior Vice President, Investments & Branch Manager of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. Member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC 606 Bald Eagle Dr. Suite 401, Marco Island, FL 34145. She may be reached at (239)389-1041, email darcie.guerin@raymondjames.com Website: www.raymondjames.com/Darcie. 

“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”
~ Warren Buffett

Question: With midterm elections ahead, inflation still on investors’ minds, and markets feeling unsettled, should I be worried about my portfolio?

Answer: If you are watching the news lately, it is easy to feel like every headline is another reason to worry. Elections are dominating the conversation. Markets seem to react to every poll, policy proposal, inflation report, or Federal Reserve comment. Add global uncertainty and higher living costs, and many investors naturally wonder, “Should I make changes until things settle down?”

The short answer is usually no. That may not feel very satisfying in the moment, but history gives us a helpful reminder: markets do not like uncertainty, yet they have been remarkably resilient over time.

Midterm election years, in particular, have often brought more volatility than investors would prefer. Historically, markets have experienced meaningful pullbacks during many midterm years, followed by recovery and stronger performance in the year after. Of course, history never repeats perfectly, but it does offer perspective. Temporary declines are normal, even during periods that feel politically or economically uncomfortable.

Think about what investors have lived through over the last fifty years: oil shocks, Watergate, recessions, Black Monday, the dot-com bubble, September 11, the financial crisis, the housing collapse, COVID-19, inflation spikes, aggressive Fed rate hikes, and more recent tariff-related disruptions. Each event felt significant at the time. Many felt frightening. Yet markets ultimately recovered and moved forward.

We often remind clients that successful investing is rarely about predicting the next headline. It is about maintaining discipline when the environment feels uncomfortable.

That can be difficult when volatility shows up on daily account statements. But moving to cash while waiting for “clarity” can create its own risk. Some of the strongest market gains have occurred shortly after the most unsettling periods. By the time the news feels calm again, markets may have already begun to recover.

The truth is that uncertainty is always with us. If it is not an election, it is inflation. If it is not inflation, it is interest rates, global conflict, technology disruption, or concern about the economy. There is always a reason to be cautious. That is why a personalized financial plan matters. Your portfolio should be tied to your cash flow needs, time horizon, and comfort with risk, not the latest headline.

It is also worth remembering that markets are usually influenced more by the economy than by which party controls Washington. Corporate earnings, consumer spending, inflation trends, interest rates, and economic growth tend to matter more over time than election results alone.

Today’s picture is mixed, as it often is. Consumers are still feeling pressure from higher prices. Credit card balances and delinquencies have risen from post-pandemic lows. Housing affordability remains challenging. Inflation has improved but has not disappeared.

At the same time, there are reasons for optimism. Inflation is well below its 2022 peak. Unemployment remains relatively low by historical standards. Manufacturing has shown signs of improvement, and many economists continue to expect positive economic growth rather than recession.

In other words, investing is not about eliminating uncertainty. It is about managing it.

A well-diversified portfolio is designed to help navigate different environments. Some areas may hold up better during slower growth. Others may benefit from innovation, productivity gains, or economic expansion. The goal is not to predict every twist and turn. The goal is to build a portfolio that can participate in long-term growth while helping manage risk along the way.

That lesson is especially important in election years. Headlines change. Political control shifts. Policies evolve. Yet businesses adapt, innovation continues, productivity improves, and corporate profits have historically grown over time. Political cycles come and go, but the long-term drivers of market growth have been surprisingly consistent.

That is why investors should pay attention to politics without allowing politics to dictate their investment decisions. Staying invested, remaining diversified, and focusing on long-term goals may be far more productive than trying to guess the next election result or market headline.

If your portfolio was built around your plan, your income needs, and your risk tolerance, a volatile election season should not automatically require a major change. It may be a time to review, rebalance, and make thoughtful adjustments, but not necessarily to react emotionally.

The market’s greatest rewards have often gone to investors who remained disciplined during periods that felt the most uncertain. Stay focused, stay diversified, and plan accordingly.

The opinions expressed are those of the writer as September 6, 2026, but not necessarily those of Raymond James & Associates and subject to change. Investing involves risks including the possible loss of capital. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Diversification and allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

“Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.”  

This article provided by Darcie Guerin, CFP®, Senior Vice President, Investments & Branch Manager of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. Member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC 606 Bald Eagle Dr. Suite 401, Marco Island, FL 34145. She may be reached at (239)389-1041, email darcie.guerin@raymondjames.com Website: www.raymondjames.com/Darcie.