Friday, September 25, 2020

Hurricane Dorian Update

September 3, 2019, 2 PM update from NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:

Dorian’s core finally moving away from Grand Bahama Island…

Dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge will continue on Grand Bahama through this evening…

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas. The Tropical Storm Watch for Lake Okeechobee has been discontinued.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL, and from north of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC, north of South Santee River SC to Duck NC including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL and from north of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue on Grand Bahama Island through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida overnight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as Wednesday and could spread northward within the watch area through Thursday. In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Jupiter Inlet, FL to South Santee River, SC. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from north of South Santee River, SC, to Cape Lookout, NC. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Cape Lookout NC…4 to 7 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line FL…3 to 5 ft

Hurricane Dorian is centered as of 2 p.m. EDT about 65 miles (105 km) north of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island and about 105 miles (170 km) east of Ft. Pierce, Florida. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a
slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is
forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:
Northwest Bahamas…Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia…3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 5 p.m. EDT-www.hurricanes.gov

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